Bread and Circuses

What will happen in the draft? Same thing that always does. Half of what we think we know is 75% wrong and 63.29% of what we are right about flies out the window after teams start trading draft picks. Which has never stopped us from predicting in the past and won’t now.

Brady Quinn will be the #1 pick by Oakland. The JaMarcus Russell talk is all a smoke screen. Yes, he can throw a pass seventy yards. But there aren’t any teams that have the 70 yard pass in their playbook. More is unknown than known about Russell, which makes picking him #1 a big risk. Also, you can also believe that teams look at Russell and see Daunte Culpepper and Akili Smith. It may be racial, it may be wrong, but it’s reality.

Someone will trade up for Calvin Johnson. We’re talking a once a decade player. Tampa Bay might be that team if they believe the Lions or Browns would beat them to the punch. Then again, teams within reach, like the Washington Redskins at #7, might be able to make the leap.

Jerry Jones will use the draft to draw attention to himself. Bill Parcells adult supervision kept Jones from running the Cowboys into the ground. With Parcells out of the picture Jones will trade up in the first round, maybe for injury risk Adrian Peterson. He wants a high profile pick and will probably pay too much to get it.

The Redskins will come out winners. The seventh pick is a great position to be in, catching a last minute fall or even being in position to trade into one of the top three picks. And they could still use their position to work a trade with the Bears for Lance Briggs. Chicago was upset with the Redskins for discussing the possibility while Briggs was trying to leverage a pay increase, but time has passed and the Bears might want to play “addition by subtraction”.

Patrick Willis will move up a few spots beyond #12 and Alan Branch will drop from top 10 to top 20. Linebacker is always a safe bet and Willis, who almost every mock draft has going to Buffalo, may not be there when the Bills pick. Branch is getting a bum rap based on his post season, but it will still cost him alot of money, fair or not.

Character won’t matter. Teams are listening to the discussions about staying away from off the field problems and thinking “Alright, now, let’s pick up some bargains”. In the end, troubled players with fast times in the 40 are alot more draftable than slow players with good character references. You’ll see those guys in round two, not round five.

The best quarterback picks will be in round two. If I could get Trent Edwards of Stanford or Drew Stanton of Michigan State in Round 2, why would I pass up impact players in Round 1 to get Russell or Quinn? The Lions will get one of these guys in Round 2, and will take Calvin Johnson in Round 1 if they are thinking.

Very few veterans will be moved for draft picks. But that doesn’t mean that such deals don’t make sense. Teams who think they have a shot at the Super Bowl this year would be better off taking NFL proven players over draft hopefuls. Don’t look for it to happen, though.

And finally, Marcus Vick, and the question of the day. Who let the dogs out?

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