Bread and Circuses

All I know about gambling is not to. Most people don’t even know that.

About $500 million will be spent on wagers on this year’s Super Bowl. Friendly wagers between friends, office pools, and much more sophisticated schemes. And it all comes down to the line.

New England by 13 (this morning).

After watching the Giants win in Green Bay, taking New England seems like a safe wager. The Giants offense is about as explosive as shredded wheat in milk, their kicker as accurate as the polls in New Hampshire, and the Tom Coughlin looks a bit too much like Luther from the TV show "Coach" for my taste.

But the Giants could win.

Their defense is solid, special teams are OK, and they played the Patriots close (35-38) before losing the last game of the season. And sometimes inspiration overtakes superior talent. Heart matters.

Why 13 points then? Because, for all the hype the last game of the season didn’t matter much to New England. Sure, they wanted to win, but they weren’t going to take too many risks in the process. Knowing they might play the Giants again, it is unlikely they showed New York everything they will unleash on them during the Super Bowl (especially on defense).

So, how do you know what the right bet is?

You don’t. Which is basically why gambling exists in the first place. The people who set the line are professionals who study the game like jewelers study lines in a diamond . They may lose on occasion, but over the long run the spread is right two out of three times. Enough for the "house" to consistently take your money but not enough to completely discourage you from betting.

A thirteen point line says something. Not that odds makers think New England will win by 13, but that they are expecting a New England rout of the Giants. A win by at least 13. Truth be told, I don’t expect to be watching after about five minutes into the second quarter. By then it should be over.

For the Giants to win, or even stay close, too many unlikely things have to happen. Eli Manning has to continue to be the quarterback he has been for four weeks, and not the one he was for the thirteen before that. The Giants banged up secondary will have to shut down all Tom Brady’s multiple pass options. And Lawrence Tynes will have to make clutch kicks under pressure.

Not going to happen.

My advice is to enjoy the game with friends. Pull for the Giants (as all right thinking opponents of evil will be doing). Hope that Tom Petty plays "American Girl" and not a bunch of schlock like "Running Down A Dream". Enjoy the commercials.

Just don’t bet on the game. And don’t lose sight of the fact that it would take just one offensive lineman willing to miss a few blocks at just the right times, or one cornerback willing to be a step slow to fix the whole ball of wax. Which, when you think about it, is the reason the NFL freaks out over the likes of PacMan Jones. It isn’t what players like Jones do off the field, but who they do it with that worries the league.

But at the end of the day the odds of a fix are very remote. Just like the odds of a Giant victory.

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